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Report 1: Trade profile analysis
Report 2: Trade policy analysis
Report 3: Macroeconomic analysis

General information:
Purpose: This assignment is designed to
    a. increase your awareness of the nature and extent of international economic relations;
    b. familiarize you with various sources of data and the problems encountred in international economic research; and
    c. give you an opportunity to apply the theoretical analysis of the course to real-world observations.

Details:
    You should clear your chosen country with me in advance, since I will not read more than two papers covering the same country. You should also choose a country other than the Philippines, since I use that as an example case. Two classmates may choose the same country and work together gathering information, but you must each submit your own written report.
    Each report should be about four pages long.
    Your report grade depends on the quality of your analysis, research and writing. Be sure to cite your information sources.

Report 1: Trade profile analysis
Part I of the course concerns the growth, causes and effects of international trade. In your country report for Part 1, focus on how well your country serves as an example or counterexample of some of the issues raised. Types of issues you might address include (see below for suggested sources for each item, and see Country report 1: trade profile--sample data for the Philippines for an example that you can use as a sort of template):
    A. Background information: Provide some key information that you think is relevant to the country's trade relations issues. For example: (1) Trade indicators: indicators of the likely extent of the country's trade dependence, such as its area, location and population; and (2) Development indicators: indicators of the country's economic status, such as income per capita, and/or classification as a developed country (DC) or lesser developed country (LDC), which you think might help you predict whether resource endowment-based (Heckscher-Ohlin) trade might be most relevant to the country or other types of trade instead.
    B. Trade and its results: (1) Extent of trade: How trade-dependent is your country compared to the U.S.? Are you surprised? Why or why not? (2) Trade trends: Data for the world and for the U.S. indicate increasing openness (trade dependence) over time. Is that true for your country? (3) Terms of trade: Has your country's terms for trade increased or decreased over time? How about real output per capita? (Consider illustrating how your country has fared over time with respect to output, trade and welfare in a general equilibrium (PPF/indifference curve) diagram.)
    C. Trade pattern: (1) Expected exports: What sorts of products would you expect your country to export based on Heckscher-Ohlin considerations? To help you predict, you might report information about the country's relative position with respect to characteristics such as population density, structure of output, urbanization and education. (2) Actual exports: Compare your expectations with what the country actually does export. (3) Trade partners: In general, DCs trade mainly with each other, and LDCs trade mainly with DCs. Does your country's trade follow that pattern? What does your finding suggest about the relevance of the Heckscher-Ohlin model for your country? (4) Comparative advantage trends: Does your country's comparative advantage seem to be shifting over time? For example, is your country accumulating capital relatively rapidly compared to other countries?
    D. Income trends: How has the rate of change in your country's standard of living (measured by real wages, or real GDP per capita) over time compared to the U.S.? In light of the Heckscher-Ohlin model, are you surprised or not? Explain.
    If you can think of other trade issues that your country illustrates, all the better.

Research sources:
Specific online sites where I've found good economic and trade profile data:
    1. The World Bank Group--Development Data: Country data  Eespecially useful for Trade trends (B(2)), Terms of trade (B(3)), and Expected exports (C(1)).
    2. The World Bank Group--Development Data: Data by topic  See, for example: Economic growth and structure: Long term structural change for items Extent of trade (B(1)) and Expected exports (C(1)); Economic growth and structure: Structure of output for Expected exports (C(1)); Gross National Product: Size of the economy for Trade indicators (A(1)), Development indicators (A(2)), and Expected exports (C(1)).
    3. CIA Publications  Choose the link to the most recent CIA World Factbook and search by country. Much useful data, some of it also reported by the World Bank, but some unique data too, such as information for Actual exports (C(2)) and Trade partners (C(3)).
    4. Foreign Labor Statistics Home Page Ccompares wages and production costs for several countries; if your country is included, it is the best source for Income trends (D).

"Proven" print source:
    5. International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics Yearbook.
(HG3881 .I6265) (latest edition on 2-hour reserve at the library)
    Data for Trade indicators (A(1)), and Trade and its results (B(1), B(2), B(3)), and possibly the only good source for Comparative advantage trends (B(4)) and Income trends (D).
    For Comparative advantage trends (B(4)): look for 'National accounts' in the 'World Tables' contained in the front section of the yearbook, and then find the table reporting 'Gross capital formation as a percent of GDP.'
    For Income trends (D): look under your country's table. The best measure, if available, is the change in real wages over time (wage (line 65) divided by CPI (line 64))--compare that to the same values for the U.S. Otherwise, try comparing real GDP per capita over time (real GDP (line 99b) divided by population (line 99z)).

Other good online sources:
    Alta Plana: International Economics Gateway: National Government Pages: links to home pages for specific national governments

Other good library sources:
    United Nations. Statistical Office. Statistical yearbook. Annuaire statistique. (HA12.5 .U63)
    United Nations. Statistical Office. Yearbook of international trade statistics. (HF91 .U473)

Report 2: Trade policy analysis:
Part II of the course concerns trade policy. In your country report for Part 2, focus on a discussion and analysis of the country's particular trade policies. Items you might address include:
    Tariff rate: current average rate, trends in the country's protectionism, the sorts of items protected.
    General trade policy issues for your country. For example, you might have found a peculiarity about your country in report 1 that you might want to explore in report 2. (Example: Brazil has an unusually low trade/GDP ratio--could this be due to its trade policies?)
    Trade organizations: Is your country a member of global organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), the former General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), etc.? Of any regional trade arrangements?
    Trade relations with the U.S.: has your country ever been the subject of a U.S. trade complaint? If so, discuss.
    Consider in this report the possible use of diagrams to illustrate trade policy issues such as: (1) the impact of the country's average tariff; (2) the trade-offs of any preferential trade arrangement your  country might be part of; or (3) the nature of any trade complaints with the U.S.

Research sources:
Specific online sites where I've found good trade policy information:
    The World Bank Group--Development Data: Data by topic excellent source for tariff data under: Trade: Tariff barriers
     U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Economic Practice and Trade Reports good discussion of trade practices and recent trade policy developments
    AD/CVD Statistics  and USITC: INVESTIGATION OPINIONS these sites deal with recent trade complaints filed by U.S. producers; the first gives a listing where you can search for your country and the second allows to read specific trade complaints
    Trade Compliance Center Department of Commerce site with lots of info about trade agreements and complaints, searchable by product or country
    Occidental College Library Home Page use this to reach FirstSearch and ProQuest Direct, excellent sources of professional research, where you can search by topic or country; ProQuest Direct has many articles full-text online

Report 3: Macroeconomic analysis:
Part IV of the course concerns macroeconomic analysis in a global open-economy context. In your country report for Part 3, focus on a discussion and analysis of the country's macroeconomic situation. Lots of macro information is available, so you might want to focus on information that pertains to a particular issue or event involving your country. The following sorts of data might be useful to you, depending on your focus (see  Country report 3: macroeconomic sample data for the Philippines for an example that you can use as a sort of template): :
    The country's current account: Has the country tended to run current account surpluses or deficits in recent years? How large, in dollars, and as a share of the country's GDP?
    The country's exchange rate: Has the country tended to experience currency depreciation or appreciation in recent years relative to the dollar?
    Accounting for the country's exchange rates: (1) Compare the inflation rate of your country to the U.S. inflation rate for a recent time period. Does the inflation-rate differential seem to account for the change in the exchange rate between the two countries? Has your country experienced real depreciation or appreciation? (2) If you can find interest-rate data for your country, what rate of return would you have earned in your country in a recent time period? Compare the return to what you would have earned in the U.S.
    Macroeconomic policy: Assess your country's recent macro policy. (1) A good measure of a country's fiscal policy is its budget surplus/deficit. Estimate your country's budget surplus/deficit as a share of GDP; a good rule of thumb is that the budget deficit should not exceed 3 percent of GDP. (2) One measure of a country's monetary policy is its inflation rate. Estimate your country's inflation rate. By comparison, the U.S. inflation rate has averaged under 3 percent per year in the 1990s, and its annual inflation rate since World War II has never reached 15 percent.
    Exchange rate policy: (1) Does your country have floating or fixed exchange rates? What does your country's choice of exchange rate policy imply about the autonomy of its macroeconomic policymaking? Illustrate in an NFI-NX diagram how your country's foreign-sector equilibrium has changed recently. (2) Has your country had any noticeably sharp changes in its exchange rates? If so, is there any evidence of volatility such as exchange-rate overshooting? (3) If information is available, does your country use foreign exchange controls? If so, discuss them briefly.
    Policy recommendations: Do you have any particular policy recommendations for your country? These might include monetary and fiscal policy recommendations and/or exchange-rate recommendations.

Research sources:
    Most likely best source: International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics (HG3881 .I626). (the latest edition of the Yearbook is on 2-hour reserve, but you can find more current data in their monthly issues). Copy the pages for your own country and for the U.S., so you can make comparisons.
    Useful informationn includes (Parentheses contain recommended data table line numbers. The line numbers you find may vary slightly; for comparison purposes, try to match the line numbers of your country as closely as possible to a corresponding line number for the U.S.): exchange rate (rf); interest rate (60c); consumer prices (64); unemployment rate (67r); current account (78ald); government budet balance (80); GDP (99b.c); and GDP 1990 prices (99b.r)

Specific online sites for selected information:
    Exchange Rate Plot Interface (Pacific): a great source for graphs of exchange rates. Suggestions: select your country's currency under "Base currency" and the "monthly averages" option under "Frequency." Consider going back several years for your "Start date" in order to see if your country might have had any currency crises.
    IMF 1998 Annual Report: Appendix 1 and 2: a pdf-format file containing a table (Table II.16) listing the exchange rate arrangements of each member country.
    U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Economic Practice and Trade Reports  coverage of "General policy framework" and "Exchange rate policy" in specific country reports
 

Online sites where you may be able to find good links to information: