Country report 1: trade profile sample data for the Philippines
Here is some possibly useful information I've found for the Philippines
and a template that you can use for your own country if you want (use only
what works for you and feel free to use a different approach). I would
never use all of the data in my report, but it gives me plenty to work
with.
Legend:
Bold: type of information
Fixed width: sample data for the Philippines
Underlined number:
link to data source
_____: Spaces to fill in with data for your country,
income group, or region
| italics: interpretative observation that I might include in the
text of a report. |
Report 1: Trade profile analysis:
A. Background:
(1) trade indicators:
--location: East
Asia/Pacific; island nation; __________________________
--population: 1997
Population, mid-year (millions) 73.4 ______ (1)
--area: (1000sq.km):
298 (US=9,159) ______ (2c)
(2) development indcators:
--income per capita:
GNP per capita 1996 (2c):
World Bank PPP (purchasing power
method Rank parity method--best)
Rank
Philippines
$1,160 70 3,550
69
Lower middle income
1,740
4,180
________________
______ ___ ______
___
___________________
______
World
5,130
6,200
U.S.
28,020 8 28,020
1
| (note: when available, the PPP method is best--it adjusts most carefully
for the cost of living) |
--classification by income:
lower middle-income group ______________ (1)
B. Trade and its results:
(1) Extent of trade:
Trade (%ofGDP) (2a)
1970 1996
Philippines
43 94
Lower middle income
.. 52
___________
___ ___
___________________ ___
___
World
27 43
U.S.
11 24
| Philippine growth in trade has been quite rapid, significantly outpacing
the world as a whole (94% in 1996 means an average of 47% for imports and
exports as share of GDP, up from a 21.5% average in 1970). |
(2) Trade trends:
(trend data:
1976 1986 1996) (1)
Exports of goods and services/GDP
19.3 26.3 40.5
1976-86 1987-97 (1)
(average annual growth)
GDP
1.8 3.2
GNP per capita
-0.8 1.4
Exports of goods and services 6.0
9.5
(trend data:
1976 1986 1996 (1)
Exports of goods and services/GDP
____ ____ ____
1976-86 1987-97 (1)
(average annual growth)
GDP
____ ____
GNP per capita
____ ____
Exports of goods and services____
____
| since the 1980s, Philippines has had fairly rapid growth (although
high population growth has meant a much lower growth rate per capita). |
(3) Terms of trade:
1976 1986 1996 (1)
Export price index (1995=100)
.. 76 100
Import price index (1995=100)
.. 61 101
Terms of trade (1995=100)
.. 124 99
Export price index (1995=100) ___
___ ___
Import price index (1995=100) ___
___ ___
Terms of trade (1995=100)
___ ___ ___
| similar to many LDCs, the Philippines has had a decline in its terms
of trade. However, its higher per capita GDP means that it is still better
off now than in 1986 overall (for a general equilibrium (PPF diagraam),
with exportables on the horizontal axis, the Philippines would be on a
higher indifference curve but with a flatter BL in 1996 compared to 1986). |
C. Trade pattern:
(1) Expected exports:
--Population density:
Area and population density (2c)
Popul/sq.km
Philippines
240
Lower middle income
29
___________
___
___________________
___
World
44
U.S.
30
| the relatively high population density suggests that the Philippines'
comparative advantage would be in manufacturing items rather than agricultural
items. |
--distinctive characteristics
versus other countries in the region/income classification:
(comparative data for: Philippines
/ East Asia-Pacific region /
lower middle-income) (1)
relatively...
Phi Asia Mid
--urban: Urban population
(% of total population) 56
32 42
--high Child malnutrition
(% of children under 5) 30
16 ..
--high literacy: Illiteracy
(% of population age 15+) 5 17 19
--rapid population growth rate:
1991-97: Population (%) 2.3 1.3 1.2
Workspace for distinctive characteristics:
|
--Structure of
economy:
Labor force in agric.(%) Urban population (%)(2a)
1970 1996
1970 1996
Philippines
58 46
33 55
Lower middle income
66 58
28 40
___________
___ ___
___ ___
___________________ ___
___
___ ___
World
55 49
37 46
U.S.
4 3
74 76
% of GDP: Agriculture Industry
Services (2b)
1970 1996 1970 1996
1970 1996
Philippines
25 21 39
32 36 47
Lower middle income
15 12 43
37 42 51
___________
___ ___ ___ ___
___ ___
___________________ ___
___ ___ ___ ___
___
World
7 38
55
U.S.
3 33
64
| the Philippines still seems somewhat overly involved in agriculture
than would seem appropriate given its high population density, but compared
to other lower middle income countries, its labor force in agriculture
has fallen more and its urban population has grown more. The Philippines'
conditions and trends suggest that the country might be expected to export
primarily light, laobr-intensive manufacturing items |
(2) Actual exports:
Export commodities:
electronics and telecommunications 51%,
machinery and transport
10%, garments 9%, other 30% (3)
Export commodities:
_______________________________________
___________________________________________________________
| 70% of exports are in a few categories of manufactured items. |
(3) Trade partners:
Export destinations: US 34%, Japan 17%, EU 17%, ASEAN 14%,
Hong Kong 4%, Taiwan 4% (1997 est.) (3)
Export destinations: _______________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________ |
| 68% of exports destined to large industrial economies (US,Japan,EU),
so HO trade plausibly applies to most of the Philippines' trade. |
(4) Comparative advantage trends
--Capital formation trends:
Gross capital formation as a percent of GDP (5a)
1976 1986 1996
World
23.3% 22.0% 22.3%
Industrial countries
22.5 20.8 19.7
Developing countries
25.0 24.2 26.1
Asia
21.7 28.4 32.7
Philippines
31.0 15.2 24.0
___________
____ ____ ____
___________
____ ____ ____
| fell sharply, then rebounded but sill below average for developing
countries and especially for Asia |
D. Income trends:
(Real GDP=billion 1990 currency
units, population=million,
real GDP/capita=thousand 1990
currency units)
1976 1986 1996 (5b)
Philippines: Real GDP
732.4 884.6 1269.0
Pop.
43.4 56.0 71.9
Real GDP/Pop 16.9 15.8
17.6
10-yr. growth: -6.5%
11.4%
U.S.
Real GDP 3981.3 5186.8
6482.7
Pop.
218.0 240.7 265.4
Real GDP/Pop 18.3 21.5
24.4
10 yr. change:
17.5% 13.5%
____________ Real GDP
_____ _____ ____
Pop.
_____ _____ _____
Real GDP/Pop _____ _____ _____
10-yr. growth: _____
_____
| Output per capita for the Philippines has not grown as fast as for
the U.S., contrary to expectations of the HO model which suggests that
convergence should be occurring. Difficulties under the Marcos regime early
on and continuing rapid population growth may account for some of this. |
Reference list and links:
1.
The World Bank Group--Development Data: Country data (http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/countrydata.html)
(Philippines: Philippines at a Glance)
2.
The World Bank Group--Development Data: Data by topic (http://www.worldbank.org/data/databytopic/databytopic.html)
(2a. Economic growth and structure: Long term structural change)
(2b. Economic growth and structure: Structure of output)
(2c. Gross National Product: Size of the economy)
3.
CIA Publications (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/pubs.html) choose
link to most recent CIA World Factbook and search by country.
4. Foreign Labor Statistics Home Page (compares wages and production
costs for several countries, but did not include the Philippines)
"Proven" print source:
5. International Monetary Fund.
International Financial Statistics Yearbook.
(HG3881 .I6265)
(5a. World tables: National accounts: Gross capital formation as a
percent of GDP)
(5b. Country tables: Philippines and the U.S.)
Other print sources:
United Nations. Statistical Office. Statistical
yearbook. Annuaire statistique. (HA12.5 .U63)
United Nations. Statistical Office. Yearbook
of international trade statistics. (HF91 .U473)
Online sites where you may be able to find good links to information:
International
Economics Gateway
Resources
for Economists on the Internet (Bill Goffe)
WebEc
- WWW Resources in Economics