| Jim Whitney |
Friday, January 27, 2012 |
Comments: http://faculty.oxy.edu/whitney/misc/wkshp_2003/comments.htm
Sources: http://faculty.oxy.edu/whitney/misc/wkshp_2003/sources.htm
Country data: http://faculty.oxy.edu/whitney/misc/wkshp_2003/countries.htm
World Bank: 1944
Special loans for LDCs
FY03: $116B in loans outstanding; $11.3B new loans
IMF: 1944; 184 members
Low-interest loans: 3% routinely
0.5% for special Poverty Reduction
and Growth Facility Loans
Lending capacity: $134B.
WTO: 1995; 146 members
Last one: Macedonia (4/2003)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita
US ($1996)
1970: 17,446
2002: 32,962 (36,509 nominal)
Growth rate: 2% per year
Philosophies underlying the IMF and WTO:
Countries grow faster with:
Openness
Sound management
Large sample professional studies:
(1) Sebastian Edwards, Economic Journal, 3/98: 93 countries.
Open economies grow faster
(2) Bekaert, Geert, and Campbell R. Harvey, NBER, Spring
2001. 30 and 95 country samples. Financial liberalization --> +growth :
estimated increase in growth: most likely: 1.5-2.3% minimum: 0.7-1.4%
Exports: Receipts for goods and services sold
abroad
Imports: Payments for goods and services bought from abroad
US data for 2002:
Exports: $1,039B
Imports: $1,472B
GDP: $10,506
WTO: 100 x (X + M)/GDP -- openness
US: 23.9%
IMF: 100 x (X - M)/GDP
X-M = Current Account Balance (CAB)
US: -4.1%
Measures how much a country loans or borrows.
Rule of thumb: Keep CAB deficit < 3% of GDP
Argentina's situation:
Not a very open economy
Trade share: Lower than for US: Penn
World Tables
Globalization
index
Has not performed very well
6th richest country in the world in
1900
Income per capita: CIA
Factbook or World
Bank
Why?
Debt and policy troubles:
CAB: World Bank: Country
at a glance tables
Exchange rate: FX Plot
Interface
Aggregate Governance Indicators Excel
spreadsheet
How to cut a CAB deficit? Only 4 options
exist:
+S, -I
+T, -G (either way lowers the
government's budget deficit)