February 27, 2012 |
III. International
factor migration
A. Labor migration
Results:
Recall that trade caused redistribution
from labor to capital
Labor migration is similar
Borjas (1996).
The
new economics of immigration:
Labor
immigration:
--> change in income for capital owners:
+$77B
change in income for
unskilled labor: -$70B
change in
national welfare: +$7B
$10
redistributed for each $1 of efficiency gain
22 years of BLS
data: 3 years after lay-off:
only 30% earn the same or
more
average wage change = -10%
unemployed, retired, or perhaps at home with children (Lori
G. Kletzer)
B. International investment
Investment = the fundamental engine for growth
Physical capital: plant and equipment
Human capital: education and training
Investment is financed by savings
Two sources of
savings and investment:
Domestic:
requires internal resources, but you then capture the returns on investment
yourself
Foreign: allows a country
to benefit from using foreign savings, getting higher labor productivity and
wages, but must pay foreign investors a return
Examples:
Direct investment
-- control; own 10%+ of stock
Portfolio investment -- seek profitable
returns, not control
Loans
International investment is the mirror
image of labor migration
Results:
We've already dealt with the case of labor
migration: it's relatively easy to understand: workers physically move to
another country and earn labor income there.
The process
of actually shifting savings to another country is not as straightforward as it
is for labor.
In the real world,
resource migration moves both directions: diversification of investment.
So how does capital migrate on balance?
--real investment versus financial investment
see investment concepts worksheet -- top panel
real investment (I in macro)
=
spending on plant and equipment
--> Demand for credit
financial
investment (= S in macro)
= using your savings (S) to
buy stock, make loans
--> Supply of credit
foreign investment = a type of financial investment
i-ratea
= domestic i-rate without foreign investment
i-rateROW
> i-ratea
=> make foreign investments (lend)
i-rateROW
< i-ratea
=> receive foreign investments (borrow)
Net foreign investment:
see investment concepts worksheet -- bottom panel
^-- Gross investments --^ | |||||
US net foreign investment (NFI) |
= | US investment abroad |
- | Foreign investment in US |
|
2008: | -$706B | = | $29B | - | $735B |
How does a country
come up with the money to make net foreign investments?
non-zero NFI requires unbalanced trade
The size of NFI = the current account balance (CAB)
CAB = | NX of goods (balance of merchandise trade) | = NX in GDP | |
+ | NX of services (combined = balance on goods and services) | ||
+ | Net factor income (domestic L&K abroad - foreign L&K at home) | = NX in GNP | |
+ | Net unilateral transfers (gifts and aid) |
Note: GDP = output produced within domestic
boundaries
GNP = output produced by domestic factors of
production (best measure of income)