Monday, April 30, 2012

 
THE "GLOBAL SAVING GLUT"

Current account balance (billion dollars)

 

1996

Change,
1996-2006

2006

Change,
1996-2006

2010

           
   

Outflows

 

Outflows

 

China

$7

226

$233

73

$305

High-income, non-housing-boom countries

$100

403

$504

58

$561

   

Outflows

 

Inflows

 

OPEC

$25

217

$242

(99)

$143

1997-2001 debt-crisis countries

($69)

238

$170

(68)

$102

Countries not reported elsewhere

($0)

89

$89

(39)

$50

   

Inflows

 

Outflows

 

United States

($125)

(676)

($801)

330

($471)

The PIIGS

$30

(248)

($218)

29

($189)

   

Inflows

 

Inflows

 

Other high-income housing-boom countries

$19

(40)

($21)

(79)

($100)

LDCs-exc. OPEC & 1997-2001 debt-crisis countries

($53)

(44)

($97)

(68)

($165)

           

Total outflows

$182

 

$1,237

 

$1,161

Total inflows

$247

 

$1,137

 

$825

           

Statistical discrepancy

$66

 

($100)

 

($236)

           
 

Current account balance

 

(share of global surpluses and deficits)

 

1996

Change,
1996-2006

2006

Change,
1996-2006

2010

   

Outflows

 

Outflows

 

China

4%

19%

19%

15%

26%

High-income, non-housing-boom countries

55%

34%

41%

12%

48%

   

Outflows

 

Inflows

 

OPEC

14%

19%

20%

-28%

12%

1997-2001 debt-crisis countries

-28%

20%

14%

-19%

9%

Countries not reported elsewhere

0%

8%

7%

-11%

4%

   

Inflows

 

Outflows

 

United States

-50%

-67%

-70%

68%

-57%

The PIIGS

17%

-25%

-19%

6%

-23%

   

Inflows

 

Inflows

 

Other high-income housing-boom countries

10%

-4%

-2%

-22%

-12%

LDCs-excl. OPEC & 1997-2001 debt-crisis countries

-22%

-4%

-9%

-19%

-20%

           

Total outflows

 

1,174

 

488

 

Total inflows

 

1,008

 

353