Jim Whitney

Friday, January 27, 2012

International investment: the long run

The long-run analysis of international investment makes use of the fundamental relationship of open-economy macroeconomics: NFI=NX, where NFI (net foreign investment) = (S+T)-(I+G), the difference between an economy's domestic supply of savings (S+T) and demand for savings (I+G). Basically, a country's net foreign investment consists of any domestic savings left over after paying for domestic investment and government purchases.
    To do: Depict the new foreign-sector equilibrium in the righthand diagrams for each of the examples below to help you predict whether you would expect the real exchange rate (R) and current-account balance (CAB or NX) to rise (+) or fall (-) in each case.

Example 1--US: Reaganomics, a case of expansionary fiscal policy (increased government spending (G) and decreased taxes (T)), 1980-1987:
  R
(3/73=100)
CAB
($ billion)
1980 84.9 +2.3
1987:
   Prediction (+/-/0/?)    
   Actual    

 

 

 

 

Example 2--Mexico: Mexico's currency crash, a case of suddenly reduced foreign investor willingness to extend further credit, 1994-1995:
  R
(1994=100)
CAB
($ billion)
1994 100 -29.7
1995:
   Prediction (+/-/0/?)    
   Actual