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Max Schoenholtz
Wow!
Amazing story! Brilliant plan, Mr. Selbee had! The writing is just
wonderful and very refreshing. I especially liked the way the “chapter”
headings changed from digits to the letters enumerating the following
text! (Was there any organization to that, or was it actually random
lol?)
Michael Subbotin
Sorry,
maybe it's explained later in the text, but I got stuck on the
explanation in part two, where it said that the expected payout on a
roll-down was 50 (instead of 5) for a three-number combination and 1000
(instead of 100) for a four-number and HENCE the expected payout on a $1
ticket became positive. But with the odds of 1-to-54 and 1-to-1,500
correspondingly the expected return is still negative. Am I missing
something here?
Greg Robb
The
odds change to the lesser odds of the easier combination (ie 5+1 to
5+0) but the prize is still the higher value. This raises the expected
value from $1.72 to $40 before payout deductions and taxes. About $12.50
after. The odds are still high for one ticket but are reduced by
buying thousands. EV = (prise$ - ticket$) x ( 1/odds=probability) Look
at this "Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, odds and prizes from Mega
Millions" and figure the EV with the higer prise and the next lower
odds.
Ryan Larkin
What happened when someone else won the jackpot?
There had to be a time when someone other than them won the jackpot. If that happened the jackpot would go to the winner and not the lower prize winners and Jerry would lose his bet.
I realize someone else hitting the jackpot would be rare but wonder how many times that happened and how much they lost when it did.
There had to be a time when someone other than them won the jackpot. If that happened the jackpot would go to the winner and not the lower prize winners and Jerry would lose his bet.
I realize someone else hitting the jackpot would be rare but wonder how many times that happened and how much they lost when it did.